APLD
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- APLD −5.95% on the last session vs SPY −0.04%: −5.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi oversold (RSI 28 today so far, below 30): After its 7 oversold readings in the past 5 years, APLD was higher a day later 3 times out of 7; half the outcomes fell between -7.9% and +3.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight, raised target $37.50 → $41.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices APLD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
21.28 +4.7% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
22.53 +10.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 19.11 · prior close 20.33 | |
| Bargain buy side |
19.41 -4.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
18.34 -9.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 19.12 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 21.60 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 19.41 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 21.28 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 19.68 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 20.99 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 17.73 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 23.30 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 18.34 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 22.53 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 18.92 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 21.84 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From APLD's daily swings (about 4.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | -7.7% | +4.1% | +0.3% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -8.6% | +1.2% | -7.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -9.0% | +0.7% | -1.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.9% | +13.0% | +18.0% | -23.1% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -8.3% | -7.3% | -2.7% | -19.6% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -10.3% | +7.8% | -20.6% | -33.4% |
| May 15, 2026 | -8.9% | +7.8% | +8.7% | -26.7% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | -8.0% | +17.7% | +61.3% | +21.8% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2024 | -11.7% | -8.9% | +28.4% | +149.4% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among APLD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 93.00 +386.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 64.27 +236.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 28, 2026 |
49.65 +159.7% |
| 200-day average | 32.01 +67.5% |
| 50-day average | 26.36 +37.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 22.53 +17.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 22.00 +15.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
20.33 +6.3% |
| Now | 19.11 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
19.11 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 18.34 -4.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 4 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.