APO
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- APO −1.19% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: −1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 9): After its 54 big gains in the past 5 years, APO was higher a month later 39 times out of 54; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +9.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices APO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
115.39 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
117.90 +4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 112.04 · prior close 113.39 | |
| Bargain buy side |
111.43 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
109.05 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 110.80 | 2 in 10 days | 116.04 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 111.43 | 3 in 10 days | 115.39 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 112.02 | 4 in 10 days | 114.78 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 107.68 | 2 in 10 weeks | 119.40 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 109.05 | 3 in 10 weeks | 117.90 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 110.35 | 4 in 10 weeks | 116.52 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From APO's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among APO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 11, 2024 |
173.94 +55.3% |
| Highest analyst target | 173.00 +54.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 151.45 +35.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 6, 2026 |
150.80 +34.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 127.00 +13.4% |
| 50-day average | 126.83 +13.2% |
| 200-day average | 124.44 +11.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 117.90 +5.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
113.39 +1.2% |
| Now | 112.04 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 109.05 -2.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 12, 2026 |
99.46 -11.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.