APPF
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- APPF +6.86% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +6.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 after the close (date not confirmed): EPS $1.33 expected (3 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.7× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices APPF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
207.57 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
213.13 +4.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 217.12 · prior close 203.18 | |
| Bargain buy side |
198.88 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
193.70 -4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 197.51 | 2 in 10 days | 209.02 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 198.88 | 3 in 10 days | 207.57 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 200.17 | 4 in 10 days | 206.23 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 190.71 | 2 in 10 weeks | 216.46 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 193.70 | 3 in 10 weeks | 213.13 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 196.52 | 4 in 10 weeks | 210.06 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From APPF's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among APPF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 4, 2025 |
321.25 +48.0% |
| 52-week closing high Nov 3, 2025 |
262.26 +20.8% |
| Now | 217.12 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 213.13 -1.8% |
| 50-day average | 210.12 -3.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
203.18 -6.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 193.70 -10.8% |
| 200-day average | 184.27 -15.1% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
143.34 -34.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.