APPN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- APPN +10.61% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +10.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices APPN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
39.79 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
41.51 +8.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 42.53 · prior close 38.45 | |
| Bargain buy side |
37.16 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
35.62 -7.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 36.74 | 2 in 10 days | 40.23 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 37.16 | 3 in 10 days | 39.79 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 37.54 | 4 in 10 days | 39.38 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 34.74 | 2 in 10 weeks | 42.55 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 35.62 | 3 in 10 weeks | 41.51 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 36.45 | 4 in 10 weeks | 40.56 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From APPN's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among APPN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 27, 2021 |
235.24 +453.1% |
| 52-week closing high Nov 12, 2025 |
45.64 +7.3% |
| Now | 42.53 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 41.51 -2.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
38.45 -9.6% |
| 50-day average | 37.52 -11.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 35.62 -16.3% |
| 200-day average | 28.12 -33.9% |
| 52-week closing low May 13, 2026 |
18.72 -56.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 9 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.