APTV
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- APTV +2.93% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.9% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.8%): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, APTV was higher a week later 26 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -5.2% and +3.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 3 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, lowered target $65.00 → $60.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices APTV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
44.69 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
45.78 +4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 45.11 · prior close 43.83 | |
| Bargain buy side |
42.98 -1.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
41.96 -4.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 42.71 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 44.98 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 42.98 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 44.69 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 43.24 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 44.43 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 41.37 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 46.44 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 41.96 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 45.78 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 42.52 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 45.18 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From APTV's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among APTV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 3, 2021 |
178.12 +294.8% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 9, 2026 |
88.67 +96.6% |
| Highest analyst target | 77.00 +70.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 65.44 +45.1% |
| 200-day average | 61.83 +37.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 55.00 +21.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 45.78 +1.5% |
| 50-day average | 45.67 +1.2% |
| Now | 45.11 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
43.83 -2.8% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 30, 2026 |
43.02 -4.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 41.96 -7.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 15 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.