ARCT
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ARCT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
10.19 +7.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
11.13 +17.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 9.49 | |
| Bargain buy side |
8.84 -6.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
8.09 -14.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 8.63 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 10.43 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 8.84 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 10.19 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 9.03 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 9.97 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 7.68 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 11.73 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 8.09 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 11.13 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 8.49 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 10.61 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ARCT's daily swings (about 7.4% a day lately), anchored on the Nov 2 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Nov 2 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | -8.3% | +12.1% | — | — |
| Oct 12, 2026 | -8.2% | -17.4% | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2026 | -5.3% | -5.1% | -11.9% | — |
| Sep 18, 2026 | -5.3% | -13.6% | -35.0% | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -5.7% | +5.8% | -12.7% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -6.1% | +4.1% | -9.8% | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -9.2% | -4.5% | 0.0% | +116.7% |
| May 11, 2026 | -6.3% | -18.6% | -20.3% | -13.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ARCT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 7, 2013 |
178.57 +1781.7% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 17, 2026 |
16.93 +78.4% |
| 50-day average | 13.53 +42.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 11.13 +17.3% |
| Last close Nov 2, 2026 |
9.49 |
| 200-day average | 9.01 -5.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 8.09 -14.8% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 24, 2026 |
5.53 -41.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.