ARE
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ARE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
41.25 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
42.58 +5.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Last close | 40.20 | |
| Bargain buy side |
39.18 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
37.95 -5.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 38.85 | 2 in 10 days | 41.60 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 39.18 | 3 in 10 days | 41.25 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 39.48 | 4 in 10 days | 40.93 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 37.25 | 2 in 10 weeks | 43.39 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 37.95 | 3 in 10 weeks | 42.58 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 38.62 | 4 in 10 weeks | 41.85 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ARE's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
Big drop and big gain: among ARE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 30, 2021 |
177.97 +342.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 60.00 +49.3% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 23, 2026 |
57.14 +42.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 50.21 +24.9% |
| 200-day average | 48.32 +20.2% |
| 50-day average | 47.68 +18.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 42.58 +5.9% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
40.20 |
| 52-week closing low Apr 28, 2026 |
39.29 -2.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 37.95 -5.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 37.00 -8.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.