ARES
Moving with its group (XLF +1.5%)
- ARES +1.10% on the last session vs SPY +0.29%: +0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +1.5% (+1.2 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ARES only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
114.47 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
116.97 +4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 113.73 · prior close 112.49 | |
| Bargain buy side |
110.54 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
108.18 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 109.92 | 2 in 10 days | 115.13 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 110.54 | 3 in 10 days | 114.47 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 111.13 | 4 in 10 days | 113.87 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 106.81 | 2 in 10 weeks | 118.47 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 108.18 | 3 in 10 weeks | 116.97 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 109.47 | 4 in 10 weeks | 115.60 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ARES's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ARES's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 31, 2025 |
186.43 +63.9% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 10, 2025 |
171.20 +50.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 168.00 +47.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 146.65 +28.9% |
| 50-day average | 129.69 +14.0% |
| 200-day average | 125.08 +10.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 122.00 +7.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 116.97 +2.9% |
| Now | 113.73 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
112.49 -1.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 108.18 -4.9% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 12, 2026 |
93.27 -18.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.