ARIS
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ARIS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
15.00 +4.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
15.75 +9.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 15.01 · prior close 14.43 | |
| Bargain buy side |
13.88 -3.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
13.22 -8.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 13.70 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 15.20 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 13.88 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 15.00 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 14.04 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 14.83 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 12.85 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 16.20 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 13.22 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 15.75 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 13.58 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 15.34 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ARIS's daily swings (about 4.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -8.1% | +1.5% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.8% | -7.9% | -17.2% | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.4% | +1.9% | -9.4% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.7% | -1.1% | -12.4% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -6.2% | +30.2% | +49.6% | +18.9% |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.6% | +7.2% | +31.4% | +19.4% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -4.9% | -4.4% | +2.8% | +15.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -4.1% | -5.4% | -7.4% | +25.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ARIS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 3, 2010 |
762.71 +4981.3% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 27, 2026 |
22.68 +51.1% |
| 50-day average | 18.13 +20.8% |
| 200-day average | 17.92 +19.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 15.75 +4.9% |
| Now | 15.01 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
14.43 -3.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 13.22 -11.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
9.60 -36.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.