ARKK
Moving with the market
- ARKK +0.44% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ARKK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
86.21 +2.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
88.40 +4.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 84.85 · prior close 84.48 | |
| Bargain buy side |
82.78 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
80.74 -4.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 82.24 | 2 in 10 days | 86.78 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 82.78 | 3 in 10 days | 86.21 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 83.29 | 4 in 10 days | 85.68 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 79.56 | 2 in 10 weeks | 89.71 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 80.74 | 3 in 10 weeks | 88.40 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 81.85 | 4 in 10 weeks | 87.19 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ARKK's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.2% | +1.9% | +5.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -3.2% | +9.1% | +9.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.7% | -3.7% | +5.8% | +10.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -7.0% | +1.6% | +7.6% | +15.7% |
| May 15, 2026 | -4.0% | +2.0% | +5.6% | +9.1% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -3.5% | -0.9% | -0.1% | -6.0% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -3.6% | +1.7% | +13.6% | +15.9% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | -3.3% | +0.6% | +1.9% | +6.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among ARKK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 12, 2021 |
154.01 +81.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 5, 2026 |
92.78 +9.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 88.40 +4.2% |
| 50-day average | 85.73 +1.0% |
| Now | 84.85 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
84.48 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 80.74 -4.8% |
| 200-day average | 78.14 -7.9% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
63.52 -25.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.