ARM
Moving with the market
- ARM +0.77% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 8): After its 35 big drops in the past 5 years, ARM was higher a day later 13 times out of 35; half the outcomes fell between -3.0% and +1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ARM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
249.90 +5.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
265.42 +11.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 239.84 · prior close 238.01 | |
| Bargain buy side |
226.68 -4.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
213.43 -10.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 223.12 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 253.89 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 226.68 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 249.90 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 230.06 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 246.24 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 206.00 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 274.99 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 213.43 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 265.42 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 220.59 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 256.81 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ARM's daily swings (about 5.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -6.5% | — | — | — |
| Sep 24, 2026 | -7.9% | -4.6% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -9.7% | +35.1% | +6.9% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -6.3% | +5.5% | +22.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.7% | -4.6% | +4.6% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -5.2% | +1.3% | -1.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -8.1% | -7.8% | -8.2% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -7.5% | -9.8% | -10.1% | -10.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ARM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 500.00 +108.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 18, 2026 |
439.46 +83.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 290.70 +21.2% |
| 50-day average | 268.96 +12.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 265.42 +10.7% |
| Now | 239.84 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
238.01 -0.8% |
| 200-day average | 222.83 -7.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 213.43 -11.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 125.00 -47.9% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 3, 2026 |
104.55 -56.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 3 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.