AROC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AROC −3.24% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −3.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AROC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
30.33 +1.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
31.01 +4.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 28.83 · prior close 29.79 | |
| Bargain buy side |
29.26 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
28.62 -3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 29.09 | 2 in 10 days | 30.51 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 29.26 | 3 in 10 days | 30.33 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 29.42 | 4 in 10 days | 30.17 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 28.25 | 2 in 10 weeks | 31.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 28.62 | 3 in 10 weeks | 31.01 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 28.97 | 4 in 10 weeks | 30.64 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AROC's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -7.0% | +0.8% | +0.6% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | -5.4% | -1.9% | -2.3% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -5.1% | -1.9% | -4.0% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.9% | -1.1% | -14.5% | — |
| Jul 9, 2026 | -2.7% | -4.1% | -13.5% | -21.3% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -3.6% | -6.2% | -13.2% | -24.0% |
| May 27, 2026 | -2.9% | -5.9% | +15.3% | -12.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | -2.6% | -1.7% | -7.9% | -12.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among AROC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 11, 2007 |
47.77 +65.7% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 26, 2026 |
41.68 +44.6% |
| 200-day average | 33.64 +16.7% |
| 50-day average | 31.57 +9.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 31.01 +7.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
29.79 +3.3% |
| Now | 28.83 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 28.62 -0.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
22.60 -21.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.