ARR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ARR +1.25% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ARR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
13.78 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
13.98 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 13.79 · prior close 13.62 | |
| Bargain buy side |
13.46 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
13.27 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 13.41 | 2 in 10 days | 13.83 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 13.46 | 3 in 10 days | 13.78 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 13.51 | 4 in 10 days | 13.73 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 13.16 | 2 in 10 weeks | 14.10 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 13.27 | 3 in 10 weeks | 13.98 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 13.38 | 4 in 10 weeks | 13.87 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ARR's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ARR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 5, 2012 |
41.81 +203.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
17.07 +23.8% |
| 200-day average | 15.79 +14.5% |
| 50-day average | 15.11 +9.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 13.98 +1.4% |
| Now | 13.79 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
13.62 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 13.27 -3.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
13.23 -4.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.