ASH
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ASH +0.76% on the last session vs SPY −0.08%: +0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ASH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
72.31 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
73.56 +3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 71.86 · prior close 71.32 | |
| Bargain buy side |
70.34 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
69.14 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 70.02 | 2 in 10 days | 72.64 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 70.34 | 3 in 10 days | 72.31 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 70.63 | 4 in 10 days | 72.01 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 68.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 74.31 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 69.14 | 3 in 10 weeks | 73.56 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 69.80 | 4 in 10 weeks | 72.88 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ASH's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ASH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 2, 2022 |
104.35 +45.2% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 7, 2026 |
76.01 +5.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 73.56 +2.4% |
| Now | 71.86 |
| 50-day average | 71.61 -0.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
71.32 -0.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 69.14 -3.8% |
| 200-day average | 62.51 -13.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
46.54 -35.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.