ASX
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ASX −3.95% on the last session vs SPY −0.76%: −3.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Thu): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ASX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
43.36 +3.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
45.24 +8.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 40.24 · prior close 41.89 | |
| Bargain buy side |
40.47 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
38.78 -7.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 40.02 | 2 in 10 days | 43.85 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 40.47 | 3 in 10 days | 43.36 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 40.90 | 4 in 10 days | 42.91 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 37.83 | 2 in 10 weeks | 46.39 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 38.78 | 3 in 10 weeks | 45.24 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 39.70 | 4 in 10 weeks | 44.20 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ASX's daily swings (about 3.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 15 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 15 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | -6.9% | — | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -3.3% | +0.3% | +16.5% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -8.8% | +1.8% | +9.8% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -5.0% | +6.8% | +1.8% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -6.6% | -4.5% | -1.6% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.0% | -0.1% | +0.1% | +12.2% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -8.5% | +1.8% | -7.2% | +19.9% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -3.9% | +8.8% | -14.8% | +11.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among ASX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 13, 2026 |
47.60 +18.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 45.24 +12.4% |
| Previous close Oct 15, 2026 |
41.89 +4.1% |
| 50-day average | 40.89 +1.6% |
| Now | 40.24 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 38.78 -3.6% |
| 200-day average | 31.99 -20.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2025 |
11.81 -70.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.