ATO
Moving with the market
- ATO −0.15% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Argus Research reiterated Buy, target $185.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ATO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
165.06 +0.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
166.47 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 163.70 · prior close 163.94 | |
| Bargain buy side |
162.82 -0.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
161.45 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 162.46 | 2 in 10 days | 165.43 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 162.82 | 3 in 10 days | 165.06 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 163.16 | 4 in 10 days | 164.72 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 160.65 | 2 in 10 weeks | 167.29 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 161.45 | 3 in 10 weeks | 166.47 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 162.20 | 4 in 10 weeks | 165.70 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ATO's daily swings (about 0.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ATO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 206.00 +25.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Apr 9, 2026 |
190.06 +16.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 185.00 +13.0% |
| 200-day average | 172.65 +5.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 167.00 +2.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 166.47 +1.7% |
| 50-day average | 163.97 +0.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
163.94 +0.1% |
| Now | 163.70 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 161.45 -1.4% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 23, 2026 |
156.24 -4.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 43 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.