AU
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AU +1.99% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +1.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AU only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
91.30 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
94.43 +6.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 90.61 · prior close 88.84 | |
| Bargain buy side |
86.45 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
83.58 -5.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 85.69 | 2 in 10 days | 92.11 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 86.45 | 3 in 10 days | 91.30 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 87.17 | 4 in 10 days | 90.55 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 81.95 | 2 in 10 weeks | 96.31 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 83.58 | 3 in 10 weeks | 94.43 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 85.14 | 4 in 10 weeks | 92.70 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AU's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AU's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 2, 2026 |
123.84 +36.7% |
| 50-day average | 101.56 +12.1% |
| 200-day average | 95.53 +5.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 94.43 +4.2% |
| Now | 90.61 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
88.84 -2.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 83.58 -7.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
60.79 -32.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.