AUR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AUR +1.68% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AUR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
5.24 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
5.49 +8.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 5.14 · prior close 5.05 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.86 -3.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
4.64 -8.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.80 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 5.31 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 4.86 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 5.24 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 4.92 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 5.18 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 4.52 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 5.65 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 4.64 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 5.49 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 4.76 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 5.36 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AUR's daily swings (about 3.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -5.7% | — | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | -12.4% | +8.7% | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -11.8% | -6.2% | +5.5% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -7.5% | +2.7% | -5.5% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -9.4% | +4.2% | +4.2% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -6.2% | -3.8% | +2.4% | -16.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -10.0% | -12.9% | -2.3% | -15.8% |
| May 15, 2026 | -5.7% | -8.3% | -20.4% | -9.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among AUR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 19, 2021 |
17.11 +233.2% |
| 52-week closing high May 13, 2026 |
8.40 +63.6% |
| 50-day average | 6.10 +18.8% |
| 200-day average | 5.60 +9.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 5.49 +7.0% |
| Now | 5.14 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
5.05 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 4.64 -9.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
3.77 -26.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.