AVAL
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AVAL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
4.52 +2.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
4.64 +4.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 4.41 · prior close 4.43 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.34 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
4.23 -4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.31 | 2 in 10 days | 4.55 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 4.34 | 3 in 10 days | 4.52 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 4.37 | 4 in 10 days | 4.49 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 4.17 | 2 in 10 weeks | 4.71 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 4.23 | 3 in 10 weeks | 4.64 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 4.29 | 4 in 10 weeks | 4.57 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AVAL's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | -2.9% | +0.6% | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | -3.4% | +3.7% | -2.0% | — |
| Sep 18, 2026 | -2.9% | -2.2% | -6.8% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -3.6% | +5.7% | +4.8% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -3.2% | +10.8% | +16.1% | -0.1% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -3.1% | +0.6% | +8.1% | +1.6% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -7.1% | -4.3% | -5.4% | -4.0% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | -4.1% | +3.0% | +2.7% | +7.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among AVAL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 26, 2014 |
7.29 +65.3% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 18, 2026 |
5.68 +28.8% |
| 50-day average | 5.00 +13.5% |
| 200-day average | 4.72 +7.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 4.64 +5.1% |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
4.43 +0.5% |
| Now | 4.41 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 4.23 -4.0% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 3, 2026 |
3.47 -21.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.