AVAV
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AVAV +1.49% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AVAV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
124.37 +3.1% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
129.18 +7.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 122.40 · prior close 120.60 | |
| Bargain buy side |
116.95 -3.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
112.59 -6.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 115.79 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 125.61 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 116.95 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 124.37 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 118.04 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 123.21 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 110.10 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 132.10 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 112.59 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 129.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 114.96 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 126.52 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AVAV's daily swings (about 3.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | -5.4% | +11.1% | -2.3% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -6.1% | -18.2% | -13.6% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -9.1% | +18.3% | +7.1% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -4.7% | +5.1% | +27.4% | — |
| Jul 6, 2026 | -7.4% | -19.8% | -4.4% | -20.4% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -4.6% | +21.3% | +5.2% | +9.7% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | -7.1% | -11.3% | -17.2% | -10.1% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -6.3% | -9.7% | -7.6% | -24.1% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -4.1% | — | — | — |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -10.8% | -8.1% | -0.6% | +6.3% |
| May 13, 2026 | -4.7% | +1.8% | +6.0% | +17.7% |
| Mar 7, 2025 | -2.0% | -2.2% | -14.3% | +44.3% |
| Jan 21, 2022 | -1.2% | -6.2% | +1.8% | +51.4% |
| Nov 30, 2021 | -2.0% | -28.2% | -23.0% | -9.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among AVAV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 13, 2025 |
409.83 +234.8% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
401.63 +228.1% |
| 200-day average | 196.14 +60.2% |
| 50-day average | 154.17 +26.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 129.18 +5.5% |
| Now | 122.40 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
120.60 -1.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
120.60 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 112.59 -8.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.