AVY
Moving with its group (XLY +1.7%)
- AVY +2.34% on the last session vs SPY +0.29%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.7% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.6%): After its 63 big gains in the past 5 years, AVY was higher a day later 25 times out of 63; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +0.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AVY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
173.70 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
176.03 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 175.85 · prior close 171.84 | |
| Bargain buy side |
170.00 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
167.75 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 169.41 | 2 in 10 days | 174.31 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 170.00 | 3 in 10 days | 173.70 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 170.55 | 4 in 10 days | 173.13 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 166.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 177.41 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 167.75 | 3 in 10 weeks | 176.03 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 168.98 | 4 in 10 weeks | 174.75 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AVY's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AVY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 225.00 +27.9% |
| All-time closing high Jun 24, 2024 |
219.07 +24.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 199.60 +13.5% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 24, 2026 |
194.10 +10.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 181.00 +2.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 176.03 +0.1% |
| Now | 175.85 |
| 50-day average | 173.45 -1.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
171.84 -2.3% |
| 200-day average | 170.57 -3.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 167.75 -4.6% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 8, 2026 |
152.13 -13.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.