AWK
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AWK +1.89% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+1.9% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 62 big gains in the past 5 years, AWK was higher a day later 33 times out of 62; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +0.7%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AWK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
133.05 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
134.73 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 134.20 · prior close 131.71 | |
| Bargain buy side |
130.38 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
128.76 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 129.95 | 2 in 10 days | 133.49 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 130.38 | 3 in 10 days | 133.05 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 130.78 | 4 in 10 days | 132.64 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 127.81 | 2 in 10 weeks | 135.73 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 128.76 | 3 in 10 weeks | 134.73 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 129.64 | 4 in 10 weeks | 133.81 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AWK's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AWK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 31, 2021 |
170.16 +26.8% |
| Highest analyst target | 162.00 +20.7% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 20, 2025 |
141.57 +5.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 141.45 +5.4% |
| 50-day average | 134.75 +0.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 134.73 +0.4% |
| Now | 134.20 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
131.71 -1.9% |
| 200-day average | 130.65 -2.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 128.76 -4.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 128.00 -4.6% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 1, 2026 |
120.33 -10.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 18 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.