AXP
Moving with its group (XLF +0.9%)
- AXP +1.14% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +0.9% (+0.8 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 87% positive over the week.
- 7 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 6 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Overweight, lowered target $400 → $360.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AXP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
310.21 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
314.28 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 310.43 · prior close 306.95 | |
| Bargain buy side |
303.73 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
299.79 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 302.69 | 2 in 10 days | 311.27 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 303.73 | 3 in 10 days | 310.21 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 304.70 | 4 in 10 days | 309.22 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 297.50 | 2 in 10 weeks | 316.70 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 299.79 | 3 in 10 weeks | 314.28 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 301.94 | 4 in 10 weeks | 312.04 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AXP's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AXP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 450.00 +45.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Dec 11, 2025 |
380.60 +22.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 369.44 +19.0% |
| 200-day average | 327.12 +5.4% |
| 50-day average | 321.04 +3.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 320.00 +3.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 314.28 +1.2% |
| Now | 310.43 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
306.95 -1.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 299.79 -3.4% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
289.66 -6.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.