AXSM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AXSM +2.38% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AXSM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
166.44 +2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
171.81 +5.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 166.07 · prior close 162.22 | |
| Bargain buy side |
158.11 -2.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
153.17 -5.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 156.80 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 167.83 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 158.11 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 166.44 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 159.34 | 4 in 10 days | 165.15 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 150.34 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 175.04 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 153.17 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 171.81 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 155.86 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 168.84 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AXSM's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | +4.6% | -5.9% | -24.8% | — |
| Sep 2, 2026 | +3.5% | +0.6% | -14.6% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | +3.8% | -2.1% | -4.6% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | +3.2% | -10.4% | -15.2% | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | +6.9% | -1.2% | -7.9% | — |
| Jun 3, 2026 | +5.1% | +5.5% | +3.9% | -10.1% |
| May 12, 2026 | +3.5% | +1.2% | +13.3% | -4.2% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +12.9% | +6.0% | +10.8% | +4.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among AXSM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 12, 2026 |
255.17 +53.6% |
| 200-day average | 200.56 +20.8% |
| 50-day average | 199.09 +19.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 171.81 +3.5% |
| Now | 166.07 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
162.22 -2.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 153.17 -7.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
123.52 -25.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.