AZN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AZN +3.26% on the last session vs SPY +0.32%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AZN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
164.64 +1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
167.93 +3.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 167.31 · prior close 162.03 | |
| Bargain buy side |
159.46 -1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
156.34 -3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 158.63 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 165.50 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 159.46 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 164.64 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 160.23 | 4 in 10 days | 163.85 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 154.53 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 169.89 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 156.34 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 167.93 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 158.04 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 166.12 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AZN's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | +2.3% | +2.6% | -4.9% | — |
| Sep 3, 2026 | +1.9% | -2.8% | -5.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +2.0% | +6.0% | +3.8% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | +3.8% | -1.9% | +2.0% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | +2.4% | +0.8% | -6.6% | -7.5% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +6.1% | -12.1% | -19.1% | -19.2% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.6% | +4.8% | -7.0% | -7.0% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +3.1% | +0.3% | +6.2% | -9.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among AZN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 19, 2026 |
208.62 +24.7% |
| 200-day average | 180.72 +8.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 167.93 +0.4% |
| Now | 167.31 |
| 50-day average | 162.06 -3.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
162.03 -3.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 156.34 -6.6% |
| 52-week closing low Aug 4, 2026 |
155.62 -7.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.