AZO
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AZO +4.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +4.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.1%): After its 62 big gains in the past 5 years, AZO was higher a day later 34 times out of 62; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AZO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
2,956.45 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
3,012.82 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 3,036.48 · prior close 2,911.62 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2,867.47 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
2,813.82 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2,853.27 | 2 in 10 days | 2,971.16 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 2,867.47 | 3 in 10 days | 2,956.45 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 2,880.77 | 4 in 10 days | 2,942.80 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2,782.77 | 2 in 10 weeks | 3,046.44 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2,813.82 | 3 in 10 weeks | 3,012.82 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 2,843.08 | 4 in 10 weeks | 2,981.81 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AZO's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AZO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 4,800.00 +58.1% |
| All-time closing high Sep 11, 2025 |
4,354.54 +43.4% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
4,055.99 +33.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 3,719.96 +22.5% |
| 200-day average | 3,273.26 +7.8% |
| Now | 3,036.48 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 3,012.82 -0.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 3,000.00 -1.2% |
| 50-day average | 2,938.50 -3.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
2,911.62 -4.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2,813.82 -7.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 2, 2026 |
2,792.03 -8.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 36 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.