BA
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BA +1.00% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Bernstein maintained Outperform, lowered target $298 → $278.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
188.17 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
192.60 +4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 186.51 · prior close 184.66 | |
| Bargain buy side |
181.22 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
177.05 -4.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 180.11 | 2 in 10 days | 189.32 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 181.22 | 3 in 10 days | 188.17 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 182.25 | 4 in 10 days | 187.10 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 174.65 | 2 in 10 weeks | 195.25 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 177.05 | 3 in 10 weeks | 192.60 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 179.32 | 4 in 10 weeks | 190.16 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BA's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among BA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 1, 2019 |
430.30 +130.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 305.00 +63.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 271.56 +45.6% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 23, 2026 |
252.15 +35.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 240.00 +28.7% |
| 200-day average | 219.63 +17.8% |
| 50-day average | 206.16 +10.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 192.60 +3.3% |
| Now | 186.51 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
184.66 -1.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 24, 2025 |
179.12 -4.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 177.05 -5.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.