BALL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BALL +0.61% on the last session vs SPY −0.91%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 71 today so far, above 70): After its 14 overbought readings in the past 5 years, BALL was higher a day later 9 times out of 14; half the outcomes fell between -0.2% and +1.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Thu): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BALL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
63.71 +1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
64.84 +3.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 63.19 · prior close 62.80 | |
| Bargain buy side |
61.91 -1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
60.82 -3.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 61.62 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 64.00 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 61.91 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 63.71 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 62.18 | 4 in 10 days | 63.43 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 60.19 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 65.52 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 60.82 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 64.84 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 61.41 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 64.22 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BALL's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 15 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 15 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | +2.6% | +1.7% | +0.9% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.9% | -1.5% | -2.1% | -4.0% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.7% | -2.7% | +2.8% | -10.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +3.9% | +3.2% | +2.9% | -0.5% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | +3.0% | +7.4% | +13.9% | +11.6% |
| May 20, 2026 | +3.1% | -1.0% | +2.8% | +10.6% |
| May 6, 2026 | +3.3% | -4.3% | -10.0% | +7.4% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | +2.1% | +0.7% | -9.5% | -4.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among BALL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 2, 2021 |
91.49 +44.8% |
| Highest analyst target | 79.00 +25.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 71.86 +13.7% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 10, 2026 |
67.10 +6.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 64.84 +2.6% |
| Now | 63.19 |
| Lowest analyst target | 63.00 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 15, 2026 |
62.80 -0.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 60.82 -3.7% |
| 50-day average | 60.62 -4.1% |
| 200-day average | 60.09 -4.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 10, 2025 |
45.77 -27.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.