BAP
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BAP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
354.81 +1.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
362.17 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 352.02 · prior close 348.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
343.21 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
336.23 -3.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 341.36 | 2 in 10 days | 356.73 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 343.21 | 3 in 10 days | 354.81 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 344.94 | 4 in 10 days | 353.03 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 332.20 | 2 in 10 weeks | 366.57 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 336.23 | 3 in 10 weeks | 362.17 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 340.04 | 4 in 10 weeks | 358.12 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BAP's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -4.5% | -2.7% | — | — |
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.3% | +2.1% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -2.0% | -1.4% | -3.7% | — |
| Aug 27, 2026 | -2.4% | +2.9% | +3.4% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -2.1% | +0.4% | +0.8% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -2.9% | -0.6% | -3.1% | -2.1% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | -2.0% | +1.8% | +6.9% | +2.9% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -4.8% | +7.4% | +19.8% | +15.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among BAP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 30, 2026 |
402.27 +14.3% |
| 50-day average | 378.27 +7.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 362.17 +2.9% |
| 200-day average | 352.94 +0.3% |
| Now | 352.02 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
348.96 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 336.23 -4.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 21, 2025 |
236.66 -32.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.