BATL
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BATL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
0.92 +7.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
1.00 +17.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 0.85 | |
| Bargain buy side |
0.79 -7.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
0.72 -15.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 0.77 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 0.94 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 0.79 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 0.92 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 0.81 | 4 in 10 days | 0.90 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 0.68 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 1.06 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 0.72 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 1.00 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 0.76 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 0.95 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BATL's daily swings (about 7.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 23 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 23 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | +10.0% | — | — | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | +18.8% | -14.5% | -12.5% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | +10.8% | -6.3% | -18.4% | -40.8% |
| Jul 6, 2026 | +7.6% | +33.1% | -4.9% | -27.5% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | +8.6% | +4.8% | +15.9% | -11.1% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | +57.3% | -39.3% | -8.3% | -33.5% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | +13.1% | -17.1% | -21.3% | -17.7% |
| May 15, 2026 | +6.2% | -15.2% | -43.9% | -36.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among BATL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 3, 2026 |
27.68 +3152.6% |
| 200-day average | 3.34 +292.8% |
| 50-day average | 1.17 +37.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1.00 +17.8% |
| Last close Oct 23, 2026 |
0.85 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 0.72 -15.1% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 21, 2026 |
0.69 -18.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.