BAX
Moving with its group (XLV +2.5%)
- BAX +3.77% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +3.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.5% (+2.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.8% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.8%): After its 78 big gains in the past 5 years, BAX was higher a day later 38 times out of 78; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +0.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Neutral, lowered target $28.00 → $27.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BAX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
25.19 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
25.68 +3.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 25.74 · prior close 24.80 | |
| Bargain buy side |
24.42 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
23.95 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 24.29 | 2 in 10 days | 25.32 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 24.42 | 3 in 10 days | 25.19 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 24.53 | 4 in 10 days | 25.07 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 23.68 | 2 in 10 weeks | 25.97 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 23.95 | 3 in 10 weeks | 25.68 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 24.20 | 4 in 10 weeks | 25.41 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BAX's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among BAX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 20, 2020 |
83.74 +225.4% |
| Highest analyst target | 40.00 +55.4% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 4, 2026 |
28.34 +10.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 27.92 +8.5% |
| Now | 25.74 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 25.68 -0.2% |
| 50-day average | 25.04 -2.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
24.80 -3.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 23.95 -6.9% |
| 200-day average | 21.06 -18.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 20.00 -22.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
15.79 -38.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.