BBAI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BBAI +5.50% on the last session vs SPY +0.36%: +5.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BBAI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
2.26 +3.6% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
2.36 +8.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 2.30 · prior close 2.18 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2.11 -3.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
2.02 -7.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2.08 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 2.28 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 2.11 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 2.26 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 2.13 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 2.23 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1.97 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 2.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.02 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 2.36 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 2.06 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 2.30 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BBAI's daily swings (about 3.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | -11.9% | -4.3% | -21.2% | -30.5% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -7.3% | +14.4% | +31.9% | -25.9% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | -7.4% | -5.9% | -3.7% | +6.8% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | -8.2% | -26.1% | -25.7% | -27.9% |
| Nov 13, 2025 | -11.6% | -13.1% | -5.8% | -37.9% |
| Nov 3, 2025 | -9.0% | -9.4% | -3.2% | -28.6% |
| Oct 16, 2025 | -9.6% | -11.9% | -21.3% | -20.5% |
| Aug 12, 2025 | -15.8% | -7.9% | -18.4% | -4.4% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | -1.1% | -7.4% | — | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -7.0% | -2.4% | +12.0% | -25.3% |
| Dec 15, 2022 | -7.6% | -13.9% | +124.7% | +75.8% |
| Nov 4, 2022 | -6.7% | -1.8% | -14.1% | +343.2% |
| Sep 27, 2022 | -6.1% | +42.3% | -5.7% | -42.2% |
| Aug 19, 2022 | -7.1% | -2.5% | -10.8% | -36.5% |
| Jul 20, 2022 | -3.0% | -20.9% | -51.7% | -62.9% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -8.5% | -13.3% | -19.5% | -67.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among BBAI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 13, 2022 |
12.69 +451.7% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
8.91 +287.4% |
| 200-day average | 3.81 +65.7% |
| 50-day average | 2.87 +24.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 2.36 +2.5% |
| Now | 2.30 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
2.18 -5.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
2.18 -5.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.02 -12.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.