BBWI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BBWI +9.47% on the last session vs SPY +0.29%: +9.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BBWI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
19.57 +3.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
20.37 +7.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 20.75 · prior close 18.95 | |
| Bargain buy side |
18.35 -3.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
17.63 -7.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 18.16 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 19.78 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 18.35 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 19.57 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 18.53 | 4 in 10 days | 19.38 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 17.22 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 20.85 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 17.63 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 20.37 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 18.02 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 19.93 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BBWI's daily swings (about 3.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | +8.7% | -0.3% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | +6.4% | -6.3% | -6.2% | — |
| Aug 26, 2026 | +7.5% | -2.0% | -13.0% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | +4.2% | +1.2% | -13.0% | — |
| Aug 3, 2026 | +4.2% | -7.9% | -10.3% | — |
| Jun 26, 2026 | +4.8% | -4.1% | -10.3% | -27.3% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | +8.3% | +3.5% | -0.9% | -19.8% |
| Jun 8, 2026 | +5.0% | +6.3% | +8.9% | +4.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among BBWI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 18, 2021 |
69.18 +233.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 23, 2025 |
25.92 +25.0% |
| Now | 20.75 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 20.37 -1.8% |
| 200-day average | 19.51 -5.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
18.95 -8.7% |
| 50-day average | 18.11 -12.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 17.63 -15.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 21, 2025 |
14.41 -30.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.