BBY
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BBY +5.08% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +5.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+5.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.8%): After its 62 big gains in the past 5 years, BBY was higher a month later 38 times out of 62; half the outcomes fell between -3.7% and +9.3%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BBY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
90.91 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
93.20 +4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 93.63 · prior close 89.10 | |
| Bargain buy side |
87.33 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
85.18 -4.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 86.76 | 2 in 10 days | 91.51 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 87.33 | 3 in 10 days | 90.91 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 87.86 | 4 in 10 days | 90.36 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 83.94 | 2 in 10 weeks | 94.57 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 85.18 | 3 in 10 weeks | 93.20 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 86.35 | 4 in 10 weeks | 91.94 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BBY's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among BBY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 22, 2021 |
109.26 +16.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 100.00 +6.8% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 22, 2026 |
94.82 +1.3% |
| Now | 93.63 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 93.20 -0.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
89.10 -4.8% |
| 50-day average | 87.22 -6.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 86.95 -7.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 85.18 -9.0% |
| 200-day average | 72.28 -22.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 71.00 -24.2% |
| 52-week closing low May 13, 2026 |
54.22 -42.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 41 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.