BC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BC +5.79% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +5.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
62.80 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
63.92 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 65.50 · prior close 61.91 | |
| Bargain buy side |
61.03 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
59.96 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 60.75 | 2 in 10 days | 63.09 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 61.03 | 3 in 10 days | 62.80 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 61.30 | 4 in 10 days | 62.53 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 59.34 | 2 in 10 weeks | 64.59 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 59.96 | 3 in 10 weeks | 63.92 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 60.55 | 4 in 10 weeks | 63.31 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BC's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among BC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 7, 2021 |
103.55 +58.1% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 18, 2026 |
87.80 +34.1% |
| 200-day average | 77.51 +18.3% |
| 50-day average | 71.80 +9.6% |
| Now | 65.50 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 63.92 -2.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
61.91 -5.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 59.96 -8.4% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
58.02 -11.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.