BCS
Moving with the market
- BCS +0.75% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open (date not confirmed): EPS $0.69 expected (2 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.7× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BCS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
23.07 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
23.47 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 22.91 · prior close 22.74 | |
| Bargain buy side |
22.42 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
22.03 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 22.32 | 2 in 10 days | 23.17 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 22.42 | 3 in 10 days | 23.07 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 22.52 | 4 in 10 days | 22.97 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 21.80 | 2 in 10 weeks | 23.72 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 22.03 | 3 in 10 weeks | 23.47 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 22.24 | 4 in 10 weeks | 23.25 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BCS's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among BCS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 23, 2007 |
31.23 +36.3% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 27, 2026 |
28.24 +23.3% |
| 50-day average | 25.70 +12.2% |
| 200-day average | 24.79 +8.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 23.47 +2.5% |
| Now | 22.91 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
22.74 -0.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 22.03 -3.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 17, 2025 |
18.92 -17.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 40 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.