BDC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BDC −2.46% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: −2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BDC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
106.85 +2.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
110.44 +6.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 101.47 · prior close 104.03 | |
| Bargain buy side |
101.29 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
97.99 -5.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 100.41 | 2 in 10 days | 107.78 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 101.29 | 3 in 10 days | 106.85 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 102.11 | 4 in 10 days | 105.99 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 96.11 | 2 in 10 weeks | 112.60 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 97.99 | 3 in 10 weeks | 110.44 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 99.78 | 4 in 10 weeks | 108.46 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BDC's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.4% | -4.9% | — | — |
| Sep 24, 2026 | -2.9% | -2.3% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -3.5% | -4.4% | -8.3% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.0% | +6.1% | -5.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.0% | -9.6% | -13.5% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -2.8% | +25.6% | +17.6% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -4.4% | -2.7% | +31.7% | +6.8% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -2.5% | -7.6% | +6.2% | -7.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among BDC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 12, 2026 |
150.72 +48.5% |
| 200-day average | 118.65 +16.9% |
| 50-day average | 117.40 +15.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 110.44 +8.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
104.03 +2.5% |
| Now | 101.47 |
| 52-week closing low Jul 20, 2026 |
99.48 -2.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 97.99 -3.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.