BDX
Moving with its group (XLV +2.6%)
- BDX +1.87% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.6% (+2.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+1.9% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 64 big gains in the past 5 years, BDX was higher a week later 27 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +2.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays started coverage at Underweight, target $165.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BDX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
191.53 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
194.86 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 192.43 · prior close 188.89 | |
| Bargain buy side |
186.28 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
183.11 -3.1% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 185.44 | 2 in 10 days | 192.40 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 186.28 | 3 in 10 days | 191.53 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 187.07 | 4 in 10 days | 190.73 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 181.27 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 196.83 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 183.11 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 194.86 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 184.84 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 193.03 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BDX's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among BDX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 225.00 +16.9% |
| All-time closing high Jul 27, 2023 |
208.92 +8.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 194.86 +1.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 194.08 +0.9% |
| Now | 192.43 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
192.43 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
188.89 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 183.11 -4.8% |
| 50-day average | 183.06 -4.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 165.00 -14.3% |
| 200-day average | 162.23 -15.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 5, 2025 |
135.29 -29.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.