BEN
Moving with its group (XLF +1.1%)
- BEN +1.06% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +1.1% (+1.0 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 64 big drops in the past 5 years, BEN was higher a week later 40 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +3.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Evercore ISI Group maintained Underperform, lowered target $36.00 → $35.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BEN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
30.91 +1.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
31.40 +2.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 30.85 · prior close 30.53 | |
| Bargain buy side |
30.15 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
29.69 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 30.03 | 2 in 10 days | 31.04 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 30.15 | 3 in 10 days | 30.91 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 30.26 | 4 in 10 days | 30.80 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 29.42 | 2 in 10 weeks | 31.68 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 29.69 | 3 in 10 weeks | 31.40 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 29.94 | 4 in 10 weeks | 31.13 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BEN's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | -3.1% | +3.1% | -0.8% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -2.6% | -0.4% | +2.1% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -2.8% | +7.8% | +7.5% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -2.1% | -0.4% | +4.8% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -2.5% | +0.4% | +1.5% | -2.2% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -3.9% | +5.9% | +1.1% | +1.8% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -2.4% | +2.5% | +14.5% | +9.8% |
| May 19, 2026 | -3.7% | +2.9% | +7.3% | +11.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among BEN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 41.00 +32.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 35.77 +15.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 4, 2026 |
35.41 +14.8% |
| 50-day average | 33.04 +7.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 31.40 +1.8% |
| Now | 30.85 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
30.53 -1.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 29.69 -3.8% |
| 200-day average | 29.32 -5.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 26.00 -15.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
20.18 -34.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 43 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.