BEP
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BEP +2.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BEP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
28.37 +1.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
28.97 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 28.54 · prior close 27.90 | |
| Bargain buy side |
27.43 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
26.87 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 27.28 | 2 in 10 days | 28.53 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 27.43 | 3 in 10 days | 28.37 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 27.57 | 4 in 10 days | 28.23 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 26.54 | 2 in 10 weeks | 29.33 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 26.87 | 3 in 10 weeks | 28.97 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 27.18 | 4 in 10 weeks | 28.64 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BEP's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -2.4% | -3.2% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -2.9% | -6.8% | -6.1% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -2.3% | +0.2% | -10.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.8% | 0.0% | -8.4% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | -3.0% | +4.8% | +2.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -2.2% | +4.0% | +9.3% | -11.2% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -2.5% | -2.5% | -0.7% | -13.2% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -3.3% | -2.9% | -9.7% | -12.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among BEP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 22, 2021 |
38.74 +35.8% |
| 52-week closing high May 29, 2026 |
36.63 +28.4% |
| 200-day average | 31.44 +10.1% |
| 50-day average | 30.64 +7.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 28.97 +1.5% |
| Now | 28.54 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
27.90 -2.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 26.87 -5.9% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 18, 2025 |
25.75 -9.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.