BF-B
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BF-B +1.18% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 14): After its 75 big gains in the past 5 years, BF-B was higher a week later 34 times out of 75; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +1.8%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BF-B only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
28.77 +1.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
29.37 +3.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 28.62 · prior close 28.29 | |
| Bargain buy side |
27.82 -1.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
27.25 -3.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 27.67 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 28.93 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 27.82 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 28.77 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 27.96 | 4 in 10 days | 28.62 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 26.92 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 29.73 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 27.25 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 29.37 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 27.56 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 29.04 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BF-B's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | +3.0% | -1.9% | — | — |
| Sep 2, 2026 | +3.9% | -2.1% | -3.6% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +4.7% | -1.3% | -8.0% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +5.5% | -1.5% | -2.9% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | +3.2% | +3.7% | +2.8% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | +3.8% | -2.3% | +7.7% | +2.3% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | +4.4% | +5.0% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +2.8% | +5.7% | +2.7% | +9.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among BF-B's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 24, 2020 |
72.18 +152.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 35.00 +22.3% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 11, 2025 |
30.08 +5.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 29.37 +2.6% |
| Now | 28.62 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
28.29 -1.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 28.26 -1.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 27.25 -4.8% |
| 50-day average | 26.94 -5.9% |
| 200-day average | 26.52 -7.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
22.41 -21.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 20.00 -30.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.