BFH
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BFH +1.56% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open (date not confirmed): EPS $3.42 expected (4 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BFH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
100.85 +1.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
103.24 +4.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 100.50 · prior close 98.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
97.10 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
94.85 -4.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 96.51 | 2 in 10 days | 101.48 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 97.10 | 3 in 10 days | 100.85 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 97.66 | 4 in 10 days | 100.28 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 93.56 | 2 in 10 weeks | 104.67 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 94.85 | 3 in 10 weeks | 103.24 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 96.08 | 4 in 10 weeks | 101.93 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BFH's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | -4.9% | -2.6% | — | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -4.9% | +4.7% | +4.9% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -2.8% | -9.3% | +2.6% | -7.0% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -3.5% | +9.2% | +17.2% | +20.8% |
| May 11, 2026 | -2.8% | +1.2% | +13.9% | +27.5% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | -6.5% | -1.0% | +2.7% | +23.5% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -5.0% | +4.2% | +19.7% | +51.1% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | -4.0% | -0.9% | +2.9% | +26.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among BFH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 23, 2015 |
211.98 +110.9% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 14, 2026 |
113.15 +12.6% |
| 50-day average | 105.01 +4.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 103.24 +2.7% |
| Now | 100.50 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
98.96 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 94.85 -5.6% |
| 200-day average | 89.91 -10.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
56.96 -43.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.