BFLY
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BFLY +1.71% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BFLY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
8.03 +5.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
8.58 +13.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 7.73 · prior close 7.60 | |
| Bargain buy side |
7.20 -5.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
6.73 -11.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 7.07 | 2 in 10 days | 8.17 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 7.20 | 3 in 10 days | 8.03 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 7.32 | 4 in 10 days | 7.89 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 6.47 | 2 in 10 weeks | 8.93 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 6.73 | 3 in 10 weeks | 8.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 6.98 | 4 in 10 weeks | 8.27 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BFLY's daily swings (about 5.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | -7.2% | -6.9% | — | — |
| Sep 16, 2026 | -6.9% | +26.7% | — | — |
| Sep 2, 2026 | -7.1% | -6.3% | +17.8% | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | -6.3% | -11.8% | +2.8% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -6.2% | +3.5% | -16.4% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -13.0% | +24.2% | +11.0% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -7.9% | +2.2% | +11.1% | +23.7% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -18.3% | +22.6% | -9.1% | +12.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among BFLY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 18, 2021 |
27.14 +251.1% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 22, 2026 |
9.93 +28.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 8.58 +11.0% |
| 50-day average | 8.49 +9.8% |
| Now | 7.73 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
7.60 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 6.73 -13.0% |
| 200-day average | 5.88 -24.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 17, 2025 |
1.97 -74.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.