BILI
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BILI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
12.92 +1.9% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
13.23 +4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Last close | 12.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
12.44 -1.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
12.15 -4.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 12.36 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 13.00 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 12.44 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 12.92 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 12.51 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 12.85 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 11.98 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 13.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 12.15 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 13.23 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 12.31 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 13.06 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BILI's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | -4.7% | -4.7% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -2.3% | +0.8% | -6.4% | — |
| May 21, 2026 | -3.9% | -1.5% | -9.2% | -3.0% |
| Jan 9, 2024 | -2.4% | -9.6% | -10.3% | +7.6% |
| Nov 29, 2023 | -11.1% | -1.0% | +2.6% | -15.3% |
| Oct 24, 2022 | -16.8% | -2.9% | +43.1% | +181.9% |
| Sep 20, 2022 | -2.7% | -4.3% | -34.0% | +29.5% |
| Feb 23, 2022 | -2.9% | 0.0% | +0.5% | -38.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among BILI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 10, 2021 |
156.37 +1133.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 28, 2026 |
35.92 +183.3% |
| 200-day average | 20.73 +63.5% |
| 50-day average | 14.94 +17.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 13.23 +4.3% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
12.68 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 30, 2026 |
12.68 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 12.15 -4.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 9 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.