BJ
Moving with the market
- BJ +0.15% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +0.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BJ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
105.48 +2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
108.12 +4.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 103.54 · prior close 103.39 | |
| Bargain buy side |
101.34 -2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
98.86 -4.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 100.68 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 106.17 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 101.34 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 105.48 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 101.96 | 4 in 10 days | 104.84 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 97.44 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 109.71 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 98.86 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 108.12 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 100.21 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 106.67 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BJ's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +3.3% | — | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | +3.2% | -3.1% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +4.2% | -3.1% | +4.5% | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | +5.6% | -6.0% | -5.7% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +2.6% | -0.5% | -3.9% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +2.4% | +4.2% | +4.3% | +9.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +3.0% | -1.3% | +8.9% | +5.8% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.8% | +1.3% | +6.0% | +5.6% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2025 | +2.2% | -4.1% | -9.6% | -13.3% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | +12.2% | -3.8% | +2.7% | -2.9% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | +1.1% | +5.7% | -0.6% | +17.3% |
| Nov 21, 2024 | +8.3% | +3.8% | +0.3% | +8.1% |
| Jun 18, 2024 | +0.5% | -1.9% | -0.8% | -10.9% |
| May 16, 2024 | +3.3% | +4.3% | +12.2% | +8.6% |
| Apr 10, 2024 | +2.9% | -5.2% | -2.1% | +14.2% |
| Mar 7, 2024 | +9.3% | -6.7% | -3.0% | +10.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among BJ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 14, 2025 |
119.94 +15.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 108.12 +4.4% |
| Now | 103.54 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
103.54 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
103.39 -0.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 98.86 -4.5% |
| 50-day average | 94.17 -9.0% |
| 200-day average | 93.78 -9.4% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 22, 2026 |
83.82 -19.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.