BKNG
Moving with its travel & car rental peers
- BKNG +4.44% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +4.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Travel & car rental basket +3.1% (+3.0 pts vs SPY; HTZ +8.0%, EXPE +5.8%, ABNB +3.2%, AAL +2.2%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.4% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.2%): After its 58 big gains in the past 5 years, BKNG was higher a month later 37 times out of 58; half the outcomes fell between -5.1% and +7.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $220 → $190.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BKNG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
163.83 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
167.81 +4.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 167.82 · prior close 160.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
157.59 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
153.85 -4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 156.60 | 2 in 10 days | 164.87 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 157.59 | 3 in 10 days | 163.83 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 158.52 | 4 in 10 days | 162.87 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 151.70 | 2 in 10 weeks | 170.20 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 153.85 | 3 in 10 weeks | 167.81 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 155.89 | 4 in 10 weeks | 165.62 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BKNG's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among BKNG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 301.00 +79.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 233.83 +39.3% |
| All-time closing high Jul 7, 2025 |
230.13 +37.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 9, 2026 |
218.11 +30.0% |
| 50-day average | 183.18 +9.2% |
| 200-day average | 179.36 +6.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 170.00 +1.3% |
| Now | 167.82 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 167.81 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
160.68 -4.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 153.85 -8.3% |
| 52-week closing low May 15, 2026 |
153.37 -8.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 27 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.