BKR
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BKR −2.82% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: −2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-2.8% today so far, past its big-drop line of -2.0%): After its 55 big drops in the past 5 years, BKR was higher a week later 31 times out of 55; half the outcomes fell between -2.3% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BKR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
56.30 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
57.48 +3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 53.81 · prior close 55.37 | |
| Bargain buy side |
54.45 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
53.34 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 54.16 | 2 in 10 days | 56.61 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 54.45 | 3 in 10 days | 56.30 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 54.73 | 4 in 10 days | 56.02 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 52.70 | 2 in 10 weeks | 58.18 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 53.34 | 3 in 10 weeks | 57.48 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 53.95 | 4 in 10 weeks | 56.83 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BKR's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among BKR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 85.00 +58.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 71.17 +32.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Apr 30, 2026 |
69.18 +28.6% |
| 50-day average | 59.92 +11.4% |
| 200-day average | 59.56 +10.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 57.48 +6.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
55.37 +2.9% |
| Now | 53.81 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 53.34 -0.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 51.00 -5.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2025 |
43.79 -18.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 40 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.