BLK
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BLK +2.70% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 14 before the open: EPS $15.93 vs $14.30 expected (beat, +$1.63, +11.4%); revenue $7.8B (+4.4% beat). The stock moved +0.7% on Wed's session (+1.8 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.7% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, BLK was higher a week later 36 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -1.6% and +2.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 5 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 4 negative); latest: Evercore ISI Group maintained Outperform, lowered target $1,300 → $1,275.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BLK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1,086.87 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
1,103.27 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 1,102.78 · prior close 1,073.79 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1,060.86 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
1,045.10 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1,056.70 | 2 in 10 days | 1,091.16 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 1,060.86 | 3 in 10 days | 1,086.87 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 1,064.76 | 4 in 10 days | 1,082.90 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1,035.95 | 2 in 10 weeks | 1,113.01 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1,045.10 | 3 in 10 weeks | 1,103.27 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 1,053.70 | 4 in 10 weeks | 1,094.26 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BLK's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among BLK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,479.00 +34.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 1,312.88 +19.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 1,190.00 +7.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
1,177.43 +6.8% |
| 50-day average | 1,103.36 +0.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,103.27 0.0% |
| Now | 1,102.78 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1,073.79 -2.6% |
| 200-day average | 1,051.67 -4.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1,045.10 -5.2% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 12, 2026 |
913.04 -17.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 27 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.