BMY
Moving with its group (XLV +2.3%)
- BMY +2.85% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.3% (+2.1 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.9% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 71 big gains in the past 5 years, BMY was higher a week later 31 times out of 71; half the outcomes fell between -2.9% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 2 negative); latest: Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Neutral, lowered target $59.00 → $53.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BMY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
60.37 +1.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
61.74 +4.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 60.97 · prior close 59.28 | |
| Bargain buy side |
58.21 -1.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
56.91 -4.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 57.87 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 60.73 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 58.21 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 60.37 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 58.53 | 4 in 10 days | 60.04 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 56.17 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 62.57 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 56.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 61.74 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 57.62 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 60.99 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BMY's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | +2.2% | -1.7% | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +2.2% | +2.8% | -4.9% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | +2.8% | -1.1% | +2.7% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | +3.1% | +3.5% | +10.1% | -2.5% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | +2.2% | -1.8% | +9.8% | +2.5% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | +3.8% | -0.3% | +11.8% | +10.5% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +3.4% | +0.5% | +3.6% | +21.7% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +5.2% | -7.2% | -9.3% | +9.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among BMY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 82.00 +34.5% |
| All-time closing high Dec 2, 2022 |
68.01 +11.5% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 3, 2026 |
67.39 +10.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 65.71 +7.8% |
| 50-day average | 63.07 +3.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 61.74 +1.3% |
| Now | 60.97 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
59.28 -2.8% |
| 200-day average | 58.44 -4.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 56.91 -6.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 41.00 -32.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 29, 2025 |
40.79 -33.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.