BN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BN +2.24% on the last session vs SPY +0.32%: +1.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
36.36 +1.1% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
36.88 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 36.76 · prior close 35.95 | |
| Bargain buy side |
35.54 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
35.05 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 35.41 | 2 in 10 days | 36.50 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 35.54 | 3 in 10 days | 36.36 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 35.67 | 4 in 10 days | 36.24 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 34.76 | 2 in 10 weeks | 37.18 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 35.05 | 3 in 10 weeks | 36.88 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 35.32 | 4 in 10 weeks | 36.59 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BN's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -1.2% | -2.1% | -2.3% | — |
| Mar 10, 2023 | -4.9% | -4.6% | +6.4% | +5.7% |
| Sep 26, 2022 | -2.6% | -1.1% | -8.0% | -7.8% |
| Jun 14, 2022 | -0.7% | -3.1% | -0.4% | +11.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among BN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 6, 2026 |
48.92 +33.1% |
| 200-day average | 42.95 +16.8% |
| 50-day average | 39.40 +7.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 36.88 +0.3% |
| Now | 36.76 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
35.95 -2.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
35.95 -2.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 35.05 -4.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 43 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.